As the Iowa Republican Party caucus for 2016 Presidential elections got underway recently, people held their breath as they waited to see who the winner in this particular state would be. As most of us are aware, the Iowa caucus for both parties is widely regarded as a good indicator of how the rest of the race to White House is likely to be. Thus, the candidate who wins the Iowa caucus is seen as one whose race to the White House has started on a good footing. When all was said and done, Ted Cruz emerged as winner in the Iowa caucus, with 27.6% percent. And that has turned out to be a major news story in almost all media houses in the USA and even abroad – which is understandable, given the fact that American elections attraction global attention. So, what are the implications of Ted Cruz’s win in Iowa?
We have to start by appreciating the fact that Ted Cruz’s win in Iowa was actually a narrow one. Ted Cruz won with 27.6%, closely followed by Trump who got 24.3%. There was also Rubio with 23.1%. The implication there is that, at this point, no candidate has emerged as a clear favorite – especially among the top three: Cruz, Trump and Rubio. If it was a landslide win by Ted Cruz, the implications would have been that Ted Cruz is a clear favorite… but as things stand, that can hardly be said to be the case. All in all though, the implication remains that Ted Cruz’s run has started on a good footing.
Another key implication of Ted Cruz’s win in Iowa is in the fact that people are seeing beyond Trump’s showmanship. With all media attention that Trump has attracted over the past one year, one would have expected a stronger showing from him.
Ted Cruz’s win in Iowa also vindicates the pollsters, who had predicted a close race between Ted Cruz, Trump and Rubio: which has indeed turned out to be the case. The pollsters in question here are the same ones who run online surveys for businesses (like, for instance, the Papa Survey) as well as the phone-based surveys. And the fact that the pollsters normally use scientific methods in their surveys explains their unerring accuracy – although they do occasionally get the whole thing wrong… but that’s a story for another day.